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Growing apprehensions exist over the possibility of armed conflict involving East African neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a heated rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the two countries have often been tense. After a long-standing battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a border war erupted in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Recent Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Despite persistent threats from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been confined to brief comments on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of reclaiming previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that attempts to justify "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

There have been no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast training completions of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, commented lately in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the British military before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the ruler cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long armed struggle ensued, finishing with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their common border, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the conflict was over – a move that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have since broken down once more.