Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
